COVID-19 Model | Key Assumptions Published September 14, 2020 Dr. Christopher J.L. Murray discusses key assumptions behind our COVID-19 model's forecast of a winter surge in COVID-19 deaths: seasonality and declining vigilance with mask-wearing and social distancing Back to top Related Media mention Inside the Global Burden of Disease study Infographic As COVID-19 has shown, continued global health progress is not assured Infographic FGH 2023: Pandemic preparedness and response Video Q&A: Populations are now living longer, but not necessarily in better health