New IHME COVID-19 Forecasts UK Facing Nearly 50,000 Deaths by October 1

Italy and France also likely to have high death tolls; Turkey forecast to see a resurgence

SEATTLE (June 24, 2020)–In its first projections comparing different actions to control COVID-19 transmission, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington is forecasting 47,924 people (range of 46,131 to 50,319) in the UK will die by October 1.

Italy is predicted to see 41,756 deaths (range of 39,437 to 45,773) by that date, and France 30,391 (range of 30,175 to 30,705). Turkey is forecast to have a total of 29,895 deaths (range of 9,868 to 117,022), with a resurgence of the virus in mid-August. The country saw a peak in the epidemic in April, when daily deaths reached 127, but is projected to see deaths beginning to rise in the next several weeks. Data on mobility show a substantial increase since late May.  

“A resurgence in some European nations is all but certain,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray. “Wearing masks has been shown to reduce the transmission of the virus by as much as one-third. Mask wearing and practicing social distancing are essential control measures as nations continue to reopen. This is all about saving lives while protecting the economy.”

The forecasts model deaths from the virus if countries continue to ease social distancing mandates but reinstitute those mandates for six weeks at the point when deaths reach 8 per million people. The Northern Hemisphere is likely facing a second wave of the virus in the fall.

“So far, coronavirus transmission correlates strongly with pneumonia seasonality,” Murray said. “This means countries cannot let down their guard heading into the fall and winter, or they risk rising infections.”

Forecasts by country are:

• Albania: 1,306 (range of 52 to 10,040)
• Andorra: 53 (range of 53 to 53)
• Armenia: 814 (range of 563 to 1,255)
• Austria: 874 (range of 714 to 1,630)
• Azerbaijan: 696 (range of 415 to 1,369)
• Belarus: 564 (range of 510 to 633)
• Belgium: 9,869 (range of 9,734 to 10,204)
• Bosnia and Herzegovina: 188 (range of 177 to 222)
• Bulgaria: 903 (range of 271 to 3,377)
• Croatia: 1,498 (range of 127 to 17,149)
• Cyprus: 17 (range of 17 to 18)
• Czechia: 353 (range of 349 to 359)
• Denmark: 639 (range of 630 to 651)
• Estonia: 72 (range of 72 to 72)
• Finland: 318 (range of 317 to 321)
• France: 30,391 (range of 30,175 to 30,705)
• Georgia: 13 (range of 13 to 14)
• Germany: 11,555 (range of 10,704 to 13,164)
• Greece: 203 (range of 199 to 208)
• Hungary: 602 (range of 588 to 629)
• Iceland: 12 (range of 12 to 12)
• Ireland: 1,790 (range of 1,764 to 1,860)
• Israel: 319 (range of 313 to 327)
• Italy: 41,756 (range of 39,437 to 45,773)
• Kazakhstan: 4,366 (range of 226 to 25,340)
• Kyrgyzstan: 2,280 (range of 42 to 14,973)
• Latvia: 32 (range of 30 to 35)
• Lithuania: 84 (range of 82 to 85)
• Luxembourg: 116 (range of 116 to 116)
• Malta: 9 (range of 8 to 9)
• Monaco: 5 (range of 4 to 11)
• Mongolia: 0 (range of 0 to 0)
• Montenegro: 10 (range of 10 to 11)
• Netherlands: 6,439 (range of 6,175 to 7,235)
• North Macedonia: 1,314 (range of 600 to 3,189)
• Norway: 245 (range of 244 to 247)
• Poland: 4,277 (range of 2,241 to 8,969)
• Portugal: 1,594 (range of 1,571 to 1,630)
• Republic of Moldova: 2,186 (range of 1,122 to 4,192)
• Romania: 9,931 (range of 4,652 to 24,223)
• Russian Federation: 19,105 (range of 15,336 to 25,148)
• San Marino: 46 (range of 43 to 53)
• Serbia: 274 (range of 269 to 284)
• Slovakia: 29 (range of 29 to 29)
• Slovenia: 112 (range of 112 to 112)
• Spain: 28,729 (range of 28,092 to 30,511)
• Sweden: 5,754 (range of 5,434 to 6,319)
• Switzerland: 2,203 (range of 2,048 to 2,506)
• Tajikistan: 869 (range of 57 to 8,998)
• Ukraine: 7,461 (range of 3,847 to 17,276)
• United Kingdom: 47,924 (range of 46,131 to 50,319)
• Uzbekistan: 17 (range of 17 to 18)

IHME also modeled deaths that would occur if 95% of the population wears masks in public. Nations with high mask use already, such as Italy, do not see a substantial drop in deaths under this scenario. However, a higher proportion of mask use in Turkey could reduce deaths by 14,627.

“Nations are attempting the difficult balancing act of preserving health and enabling economic recovery,” Murray said. “Going forward, IHME will continue to forecast for different scenarios including planned intermittent mandates in the fall when deaths per day may reach higher levels, recognizing that solutions are not uniform across communities.” 

The forecast is based on IHME’s latest model and includes health system data, such as hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and ventilator needs, as well as infections, deaths, and antibody prevalence. Other factors include forecasts of testing per capita, mobility per capita, social distancing mandates, mask use, social contact rates, and seasonality.

The new death projections and other information are available at https://covid19.healthdata.org.

Contact: [email protected]

We wish to warmly acknowledge the support of these and others who have made our COVID-19 estimation efforts possible: ACAPS; American Hospital Association; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford; Bloomberg Philanthropies; Boston Children’s/Health Map; California Health Care Foundation; Carnegie Mellon University; Christopher Adolph and colleagues at the Department of Political Science, University of Washington; Descartes Labs; Facebook Data for Good; Google Labs; John Stanton & Theresa Gillespie; Julie & Erik Nordstrom; Kaiser Family Foundation; Medtronic Foundation; Microsoft AI for Health; National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities (NIMHD) at the National Institutes of Health (NIH); National Science Foundation; Our World in Data; Premise; Qumulo; Real Time Medical Systems; Redapt; SafeGraph; The COVID Tracking Project; The Johns Hopkins University; The Kuwait Foundation for the Advancement of Sciences (KFAS); The New York Times; UNESCO; University of Maryland; University of Miami Institute for Advanced Study of the Americas (Felicia Knaul and Michael Touchton); Wellcome Trust; World Health Organization; and finally, the many Ministries of Health and Public Health Departments across the world, collaborators and partners for their tireless data collection efforts. Thank you.

About the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation 

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent global health research organization at the University of Washington School of Medicine that provides rigorous and comparable measurement of the world’s most important health problems and evaluates the strategies used to address them. IHME is committed to transparency and makes this information widely available so that policymakers have the evidence they need to make informed decisions on allocating resources to improve population health.