New IHME COVID-19 Model Forecasts 88,160 Deaths in Mexico by October 1

However, imposing and enforcing strict social distancing and mask mandates could reduce total by 8,508

‘The nation must implement sustained and enforced measures – and swiftly – to lower its tragic trajectory of COVID-19 infections and deaths’

SEATTLE (June 24, 2020) – In its first projections comparing different actions to control COVID-19 transmission, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington is forecasting 88,160 people in Mexico will die through October 1. The forecast assumes Mexican state and federal officials will impose or sustain social distancing when deaths per day in each state reach 8 per million people.  

IHME now compares these estimates to two alternative scenarios: Were Mexico to continue easing social distancing, the COVID-19 death toll could climb to 151,433 people, suggesting that more than 63,270 lives hang in the balance.

“The nation must implement sustained and enforced measures – and swiftly – to lower its tragic trajectory of COVID-19 infections and deaths,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray.

The forecast for Mexico and other Latin American nations models the deaths from the virus if countries impose social distancing mandates for six weeks at the point when deaths reach 8 per million people, comparing that to a scenario if no action is taken.

If mask use is increased to 95%, for example through enforced mandates, the death toll can be reduced further to 79,652 deaths.  

“Increased testing and use of masks are important tools in reducing the toll of this pandemic in Mexico, in addition to keeping healthy distance” said Dr. Rafael Lozano, Director of Health Systems at IHME. “The country is on a dangerous trajectory that we hope to see shift in the coming weeks.”

The forecasts by state with (“Reference”) and without (“Worst case”) re-imposed social distancing are:   

• Aguascalientes: Reference 986 (range of 285 to 2,416) / Worst case 2,477 (range of 475 to 4,242)
• Baja California: 3,398 (range of 2,573 to 4,876) / 5,109 (range of 3,199 to 7,938)
• Baja California Sur: 499 (range of 108 to 1,333) / 712 (range of 114 to 1,839)
• Campeche: 697 (range of 300 to 1,647) / 1,076 (range of 352 to 2,522)
• Chiapas: 3,210 (range of 880 to 8,247) / 3,655 (range of 901 to 10,552)
• Chihuahua: 2,588 (range of 976 to 6,267) / 3,987 (range of 1,130 to 9,259)
• Coahuila: 1,732 (range of 374 to 5,234) / 2,382 (range of 410 to 7,132)
• Colima: 119 (range of 62 to 305) / 121 (range of 62 to 327)
• Durango: 1,130 (range of 289 to 3,219) / 2,609 (range of 477 to 5,604)
• Guanajuato: 3,924 (range of 1,021 to 10,069) / 8,827 (range of 1,846 to 18,462)
• Guerrero: 3,053 (range of 1,814 to 5,214) / 7,185 (range of 3,920 to 11,130)
• Hidalgo: 1,793 (range of 950 to 3,569) / 1,859 (range of 932 to 3,983)
• Jalisco: 3,332 (range of 967 to 10,802) / 3,472 (range of 935 to 12,338)
• México: 12,865 (range of 5,430 to 30,346) / 19,034 (range of 6,350 to 41,224)
• Mexico City: 9,910 (range of 8,147 to 12,268) / 16,405 (range of 10,997 to 23,322)
• Michoacán de Ocampo: 2,970 (range of 923 to 8,462) / 4,785 (range of 1,136 to 13,558)
• Morelos: 1,432 (range of 548 to 4,245) / 2,160 (range of 575 to 6,612)
• Nayarit: 898 (range of 350 to 1,961) / 2,143 (range of 564 to 4,137)
• Nuevo León: 3,829 (range of 788 to 10,002) / 10,688 (range of 1,795 to 18,273)
• Oaxaca: 3,271 (range of 1,660 to 6,076) / 7,099 (range of 2,953 to 13,305)
• Puebla: 4,651 (range of 2,267 to 10,395) / 8,964 (range of 3,348 to 17,715)
• Querétaro: 1,408 (range of 579 to 2,953) / 1,671 (range of 620 to 3,814)
• Quintana Roo: 1,479 (range of 791 to 2,578) / 1,876 (range of 822 to 3,301)
• San Luis Potosí: 784 (range of 247 to 2,207) / 829 (range of 241 to 2,734)
• Sinaloa: 2,063 (range of 1,345 to 3,433) / 2,081 (range of 1,325 to 3,724)
• Sonora: 1,896 (range of 835 to 4,473) / 4,137 (range of 1,234 to 8,216)
• Tabasco: 1,950 (range of 1,384 to 3,189) / 4,030 (range of 2,271 to 6,726)
• Tamaulipas: 2,454 (range of 799 to 5,689) / 5,681 (range of 1,432 to 11,256)
• Tlaxcala: 1,078 (range of 448 to 2,229) / 1,296 (range of 460 to 2,907)
• Veracruz de Ignacio de la Llave: 6,148 (range of 2,607 to 12,702) / 7,880 (range of 2,830 to 17,862)
• Yucatán: 1,782 (range of 955 to 3,321) / 6,045 (range of 3,229 to 8,331)
• Zacatecas: 834 (range of 141 to 3,500) / 1,158 (range of 147 to 4,666)

The new projections reflect the growth of the epidemic throughout the region. In Brazil, 166,362 deaths (range of 135,538 to 208,079) are expected through October 1 if social distancing mandates are employed. In Colombia, the total is 35,314 deaths (range of 14,640 to 81,942), and Peru is forecast to see 36,210 deaths (range of 28,145 to 48,617).

The new death projections and other information are available at https://covid19.healthdata.org.

Contact: [email protected]

A note of thanks

We wish to warmly acknowledge the support of these and others who have made our COVID-19 estimation efforts possible: ACAPS; American Hospital Association; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford; Bloomberg Philanthropies; Boston Children’s/Health Map; California Health Care Foundation; Carnegie Mellon University; Christopher Adolph and colleagues at the Department of Political Science, University of Washington; Descartes Labs; Facebook Data for Good; Google Labs; John Stanton & Theresa Gillespie; Julie & Erik Nordstrom; Kaiser Family Foundation; Medtronic Foundation; Microsoft AI for Health; National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities (NIMHD) at the National Institutes of Health (NIH); National Science Foundation; Our World in Data; Premise; Qumulo; Real Time Medical Systems; Redapt; SafeGraph; The COVID Tracking Project; The Johns Hopkins University; The Kuwait Foundation for the Advancement of Sciences (KFAS); The New York Times; UNESCO; University of Maryland; University of Miami Institute for Advanced Study of the Americas (Felicia Knaul and Michael Touchton); Wellcome Trust; World Health Organization; and finally, the many Ministries of Health and Public Health Departments across the world, collaborators and partners for their tireless data collection efforts. Thank you.

About the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation 

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent global health research organization at the University of Washington School of Medicine that provides rigorous and comparable measurement of the world’s most important health problems and evaluates the strategies used to address them. IHME is committed to transparency and makes this information widely available so that policymakers have the evidence they need to make informed decisions on allocating resources to improve population health.